Indonesia insurance property market forecast 2013

best insurance stock - Indonesia insurance property market forecast 2013 : Property insurance market share continues to shrink. Data General Insurance Association of Indonesia (AAUI) in the first semester of this year noted, the property insurance market share slipped to 27.4% from the same term last year's 29.9%.

Property market share surpassed by motor insurance rose to 30.1% from the previous 29%. Until the beginning of the semester, the total general insurance premiums Rp 18.89 trillion, grow 12.8% compared to the same period last year of Rp 16.74 trillion.

Property insurance contributions Rp 5.1 trillion or an increase of 3.5% from the same period last year of Rp 5 trillion. While gross property insurance claims actually grew 24.6% to Rp 2 trillion from Rp 1.6 trillion in the previous period. Premium of Rp 5.6 trillion, up 17.2% from Rp 4.8 trillion.

Increasingly shrinking property insurance estimate because the war was still going on tariffs. As a result, players choose cautious about accepting risk property insurance.

In addition, the granting of commissions to intermediaries such as broker or brokerage has been no standardization. First, the commission to the broker the range of 15% -20%, now has a range of 25% -30%. In addition, property premium rates were calculated using the model per mile.

Unlike auto insurance, calculations based on the percentage of the vehicle price. "Hence, the growth of the motor vehicle, the premiums vary with the property," said Julian.

With this condition, it is not likely the property insurance market share will continue to shrink in the coming period. Moreover, the desire to create a preference industry premium rates for property insurance has not yet materialized. That is, the property insurance premium price competition will continue to happen.

In fact, the desire to make the tariff preferences that have been around a long time. However, until now there is statistical data collected premium of industry players to make such preferences. Unlike in vehicle insurance, is there a reference rate.

2013 Asian commercial insurance rates

best insurance stock - 2013 Asian commercial insurance rates :Continued economic growth and low natural catastrophe losses, combined with strong competition between insurers in most classes of business, will continue to provide favourable market conditions for buyers of commercial insurance in Asia during 2013, according to a report published today by Marsh.

Organisations across Asia, especially those with little or no exposure to natural catastrophe risk or with good loss histories, should be able to secure reductions on their insurance rates, continuing a trend begun in the second half of 2012, Marsh noted in its Asia Insurance Market Report 2013.

However, Asian companies offering employee benefit programs can expect more challenging conditions this year as medical cost inflation continues to escalate significantly, putting upward pressure on rates.

For example, Marsh expects insurers to seek average rate increases of up to 35% in Thailand where medical inflation is expected to rise between 20% and 25% this year. An upward trend, with local variations, is expected to be seen in most Asian countries.

Marsh also noted that while rates for directors and officers (D&O) insurance for US-listed Chinese companies remained high the market had largely stabilised, partly due to a slow-down in IPO activity.

Across the rest of Asia, D&O rates generally remained flat or decreased, as increased litigation against directors was offset by an increase in insurance capacity.

“The insurance market in Asia remains generally favourable to buyers as the flow of capital, capacity and competition into the region keeps rates competitive,” says Martin South, CEO of Marsh in Asia-Pacific.

“However, there will always be the possibility of spikes in premiums following large market losses. As the industry matures, clients should focus on providing their insurers with robust evidence of their risk management and mitigation strategies, not only to secure competitive pricing, but also to ensure they have insurance protection aligned to their particular risk needs.”

The report also finds that employees’ compensation (workers’ compensation) in Hong Kong continues to be a challenging market. Rates continue to rise significantly as loss experiences deteriorate and major insurers enter and exit the market, creating significant turbulence.

Banks continue to use structured trade credit insurance as a way to both deleverage their balance sheets yet still remain active in the trade finance market in Asia.

Professional liability insurance remains a buyers’ market, with highly competitive rates across Asia as new insurer entrants bring additional capacity and competition to the market, says the report.(source www.cfoinnovation.com )

Nigeria insurance market trends by A.M. Best Co

Nigeria insurance market trends by  A.M. Best Co : Economic development and the demand for energy infrastructure projects has been fuelled by Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, resulting in the country’s insurance market becoming the largest in West Africa, according to a new report from A.M. Best Co.

“Africa’s Diverse Insurance Markets Offer Growth Opportunities, Untapped Demand”

In the report entitled, “Africa’s Diverse Insurance Markets Offer Growth Opportunities, Untapped Demand”, A.M. Best notes total insurance premium in Nigeria reached USD 1.6 billion in 2011, although insurance penetration is modest at 0.6%. The report states the Pension Reform Act, which makes pension insurance compulsory for companies employing more than five people, is likely to drive further growth in life premiums. A.M. Best considers the development of the life portfolio in Nigeria as positive for insurers’ diversification, although management teams may need to demonstrate their skills in these new areas.

Carlos Wong-Fupuy, Senior Director, Analytics, said: “Nigeria’s non-life sector accounted for 74% of total premium in 2011, with drivers including the enforcement of compulsory lines of business such as motor third-party liability, professional indemnity, public and general liability. Motor risks make up more than a quarter of non-life premium in Nigeria. This reflects the country’s oil and gas risks, which result in very volatile growth in gross premiums written and low retention ratios.”

The report notes the insurance market has experienced consolidation driven primarily by higher capital requirements. The financial crisis also contributed to merger and acquisition activity, as the Central Bank of Nigeria passed a directive ordering all deposit money banks to divest their non-banking interests or form a holding company structure. However, the report states Nigeria’s insurance market remains crowded.

Source: Business Wire

Nigeria insurance market expected 2017

best insurance stock - Nigeria insurance market expected 2017 : Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, plans to more than triple the value of its insurance market in four years by improving the reputation of the industry, Insurance Commissioner Daniel Fola said.

“Our people don’t trust insurance,” he said in an interview today in Dubai. “We’ve done a considerable amount of housekeeping to make sure the companies respect the rules.”

The value of insurance contracts should rise to about 1 trillion naira ($6.4 billion) in 2017, about 3 percent of gross domestic product, from 300 billion naira now, or less than 1 percent of GDP, he said. Penetration should increase to 22.5 percent of the insurable population in four years from 10 percent currently, Fola said.

Compulsory motor-vehicle insurance, which makes up most contracts now, should remain at about 10 percent by 2017, while life insurance should constitute 7 percent, general business insurance 3 percent and petroleum companies’ insurance 2.5 percent, he said.

Oil and gas businesses will continue to contract international companies to insure their Nigerian operations as the capacity of local insurers is limited, Fola said. As Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria produced about 1.9 million barrels of crude a day in December, according to Bloomberg data.

The Bloomberg Nigerian Stock Exchange insurance index, a measure of the 10 most liquid insurers on the Lagos-based bourse, has gained 11 percent so far this year, outpacing a 5.8 percent rise in the All Share Index. (NGSEINDX) Continental Reinsurance Plc (CONTINSU) shares gained 4.9 percent today, while Aiico Insurance Plc (AIICO) was up 3.9 percent.

Lithuania non- life insurance market forecast 2013

best insurance stock -Lithuania non- life insurance market forecast 2013 : Lithuanian insurers can expect the non-life sector to grow by up to 7% this year owing to the increased spending power of its citizens, RSA said today. 

Assuming output growth of about 3%, Lithuania's non-life insurance market will expand by at least 6% to 7%, RSA's Lithuanian unit Lietuvos Draudimas AB told Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

"This is a young market with much opportunity and room for business development," the firm is quoted as saying, adding that less than half of private homes and less than a quarter of apartments in the country have insurance.

Lithuania is the European Union's second fastest growing economy. Private individuals in Lithuania spent an average 437 litai on insurance last year, which is forecast to grow 15% in 2013 to 501 litai per capita, according to Lietuvos Draudimas.

2016 Opportunities Non-Life Insurance in China

2016 Opportunities Non-Life Insurance in China : The Chinese non-life insurance segment continued to grow at a healthy rate, largely unaffected by the on-going uncertainties surrounding the global economy. Allowing foreign insurers to write compulsory motor third-party liability insurance has provided an impetus for growth. However, large domestic insurers are anticipated to continue to dominate the segment over the forecast period (2012-2016) while smaller operators are projected to gradually increase their market share. Although the Chinese non-life insurance segment recorded rapid growth during the review period (2007-2011), it remains largely underpenetrated due to low levels of product awareness, weak penetration rates in rural areas and restrictions for foreign insurers.

Key Highlights

• Although the Chinese non-life insurance market recorded rapid growth over the review period, it remains largely underpenetrated because of various limitations, including low product awareness, low penetration in rural areas and a lack of a robust distribution model.
• Of all the categories in the Chinese non-life insurance market, automobile insurance is the market leader, representing 71.8% of the market in 2011.
•  Property insurance was the second-largest category in the non-life insurance market, accounting for 22.16% of the total non-life insurance written premium in 2011.
• Over the forecast period, growth in the non-life market will be driven by the development of the automobile industry and active property and real estate markets in underdeveloped Chinese provinces. These projects will require innovative, customized insurance products.
• The Chinese non-life insurance market is highly concentrated, with the top eight companies accounting for 88.5% of the total retained premiums in 2010. The share of domestic companies as compared to foreign companies has been high, and the top eight non-life companies in the Chinese insurance industry are domestic companies.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the non-life insurance market in China:

• It provides historical values for China's non-life insurance market for the report's 2007-2011 review period and forecast figures for the 2012-2016 forecast period
•  It offers a detailed analysis of the key sub-segments in China's non-life insurance market, along with market forecasts until 2016
•  It covers an exhaustive list of parameters, including written premium, incurred loss, loss ratio, commissions and expenses, combined ratio, frauds and crimes, total assets, total investment income and retentions
•  It analyses the various distribution channels for non-life insurance products in China
•  Using Porter's industry-standard "Five Forces" analysis, it details the competitive landscape in China for the non-life insurance business
• It provides a detailed analysis of the reinsurance market in China and its growth prospects
• It profiles the top non-life insurance companies in China and outlines the key regulations affecting them

Reasons to Purchase

• Make strategic business decisions using historic and forecast market data related to the Chinese non-life insurance market and each sector within it
•  Understand the demand-side dynamics, key market trends and growth opportunities within the Chinese non-life insurance market
•   Assess the competitive dynamics in the non-life insurance market, along with the reinsurance segment
• Identify the growth opportunities and market dynamics within key product categories
•     Gain insights into key regulations governing the Chinese insurance market and its impact on companies and the market's future  read moree

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US life insurance industry forecast 2013

Best Insurance stock - US life insurance industry forecast 2013 : The credit outlook for the U.S. life insurance industry is stable for 2013, reflecting the industry's strong balance sheet fundamentals and improved liquidity profile, according to Fitch Ratings.

These positive factors have somewhat mitigated Fitch's ongoing concerns over the challenging macroeconomic environment that continues to pressure operating fundamentals. While Fitch believes the industry is well positioned to withstand macroeconomic challenges over 2013, the outlook is vulnerable to severe, albeit unexpected shocks to the economy.

The 'fiscal cliff' and Eurozone debt crisis remain the predominant risk for the global economic and credit outlook, although Fitch's base case assumption is that policy makers will take necessary steps to avoid disorderly shocks.

Fitch expects that sustained low interest rates will limit earnings growth, but will not have a material negative effect on industry capital in 2013. The industry's exposure to an unexpected interest rate spike would raise concerns over disintermediation risk.

Fitch expects that if interest rates stay low much beyond 2014, the agency's outlook would likely be revised to negative based on weakened earnings profile and anticipated negative capital impacts.

Fitch also expects ongoing rationalization of products and markets resulting from the financial crisis to accelerate in 2013. Credit implications are likely negative over the near term due to potential capital charges, but could be favorable longer term. This rationalization process is creating increased opportunities for both traditional players and nontraditional players, which are expected to play an increasing role in the industry.

Ernst & Young - 2013 US life-annuity insurance outlook
The US life insurance industry is confronting significant demographic, macroeconomic and regulatory challenges to business models and operations. In 2013, successful players are repositioning and reinventing their products, strategies and services, positioning their companies for growth and profitability in the competitive, lower-margin market.

Insurers are competing in a market where average household expenditures on life insurance have declined 50% over the past decade, a decrease most noticeable among younger consumers. Product preferences for all consumers are also altering, given the prolonged low-interest-rate environment and equity market upheaval.

In response, US life insurers are transforming their products and businesses. Many are introducing novel products and enhancements that are attractive to consumers and profitable for insurers in the low-interest-rate environment. Carriers are leveraging technology to improve business models and product offerings, thus enhancing their value propositions to customers, while estructuring operations and distribution to communicate and transact with customers on their terms.

These positive developments are expected to continue in 2013, despite the persistent economic difficulties. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow only modestly between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013, although the unemployment rate could begin to improve during the year. Interest rates are likely to remain low, and equity markets are expected to be volatile. Insurers’ financial positions will be impacted by management and expense fee instability, Deferred Acquisition Cost (DAC)
write-downs, hedging losses and basis risk and reserves and capital adequacy.

The continuing volatility is causing reluctance among consumers with regard to purchasing variable products, and the low crediting rates on fixed products are not perceived as a particularly attractive alternative. Regulatory forces also challenge the industry. At the federal level, life insurers with banking operations, or those designated a Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI), confront possible increased regulation by the Federal Reserve to improve risk management. Life insurers also must prepare for possible actions taken by the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which reviews assorted financial services transactions like insurance sales.

Other pressures include emerging US and international accounting standards that may adversely affect business operations and business models. At the state level, life insurers continue to adapt to current and prospective National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) regulations, such as the Risk Management and Own Risk and Solvency Assessment Model Act, commonly called ORSA.

Within this economic environment, many companies are rethinking the businesses they are in and developing new ways to sustain a profitable, competitive advantage. Outsourcing and shared services, for instance, may reduce costs and improve efficiency, in addition to increased use of data analytics, mobility and digitization — the buzzwords of the moment.  Indeed, operations and technology are increasingly the source of competitive advantage. In 2013, insurers should continue to address the changing regulatory environment by evaluating their product lines and markets. Improving capital and risk management still remains a priority, as does a continuing engagement with legislators to shape key tax policies.

To respond to these market forces during the coming year, senior management needs to:
• Rethink business strategy for sustainable competitive advantage
• Respond to consumer needs and changing distribution to grow
• Transform products to adapt to economic challenges by:
• Preparing for a scenario of long-term, low interest rates
• De-risking and redesigning products
• Harness big data for sustainable advantage
• Position the business for tax, regulatory and accounting change by:
• Staying attentive to tax changes in this time of governmental need for revenue
• Increasing focus on risk management and consumer protection to prepare for regulatory change
• Organizing and planning for accounting change

read full  Ernst & Young analysis ; http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/2013-US-life-annuity-insurance-outlook/$FILE/2013-US-life-annuity-insurance-outlook_EG0097.pdf

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China insurance market growth outlook 2013

best insurance stock today - China insurance market growth prediction 2013 : The Chinese life insurance market had total gross written premiums of $134.7 billion in 2011, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.1% between 2007 and 2011. The life insurance segment was the market's most lucrative in 2011, with total gross written premiums of $128.7 billion, equivalent to 95.5% of the market's overall value. The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 10.9% for the five-year period 2011 - 2016, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $225.5 billion by the end of 2016.

Fitch Ratings maintains a "stable" outlook for China's insurance sector, but recent exits by overseas investors' stirred concerns about the sector's profitability. "Our view is that the sector will be stable over the next 12 to 24 months," Terrence Wong, director of Fitch's insurance team, said on Monday.

Property insurers' premiums are set to register double-digit growth this year and in 2013, but recent regulatory changes could intensify competition the ratings agency said.

For life insurers, which have seen a sluggish first half, premium income will grow faster next year, supported by the country's relatively low level of life-insurance penetration.

Fitch says China's insurance outlook 'stable'

The agency's comments were made days after HSBC Holdings PLC struck a $9.4 billion deal to sell its entire 15.6 percent stake in Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Ltd, giving the bank a $2.6 billion profit.

The sale follows a decision in July by the Carlyle Group LP, the world's second-largest private equity company, to sell $738 million of shares in China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co Ltd.

Wong denied the share sales reflect a lack of confidence by foreign investors in the insurance sector. "The decision by some investors to exit is made based on their own investment needs, and doesn't reflect the sector's overall strength," Wong said.

China's insurance market has forged ahead with an average annual growth rate of 19 percent over the past decade, as insurers' total assets increased 10 times, according to the China Insurance Regulatory Commission. But growth stalled in 2011, when rules were tightened on selling policies over the counter at banks. Total premium income dropped 1.3 percent in 2011.

Joyce Huang, director of Fitch's Asia Pacific Insurance team, said she expected life insurers' premium income to grow 2.4 percent this year. Growth will also be single-digit in 2013, but will be faster than this year.

Huang said one major factor that impacts life insurers' ratings is the possibility that they may be exposed to more risks from new investments in light of the commission's measures to liberalize the sector.

This year, the commission gave Chinese insurers more flexibility to diversify their investments to include credit-related financial products such as banks' wealth management products and asset-backed securities.

They are allowed to hold up to 30 percent of their assets in those products. In addition, insurers can now invest up to 20 percent of their total assets in infrastructure debt and property-related assets, up from 10 percent previously.

"These measures have tended to bring in more risks, which may affect insurers' ratings," said Huang. Premium growth will be faster for property insurers, with Wong expecting a 15 percent increase in the first half of 2013.

But their margin will be squeezed by the commission's decision this year to build a market-oriented pricing system, as well as introducing foreign insurers, in the third-party liability automobile insurance market.

"The move encourages competition, but will not result in price wars. Foreign players need time to build up their own distribution channels," said Wong.

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Vietnam Insurance market prediction 2013

best insurance stock - Vietnam Insurance market prediction 2013 : in 2012 going through many difficulties, challenges than the original data, make it difficult for the insurance industry plans 17% growth target. Preparation of business plan for next year, many companies in the industry no longer sets growth "year after year".

Phung Dac Loc, Secretary General of the Vietnam Insurance Association (AVI) said that the insurance market in 2013 will certainly encounter similar difficulties in 2012. "Congress passed the indicators of socio-economic development in 2013 with GDP growth of 5.5%, public investment accounted for 30% of GDP, the CPI rose by 8%, which means predicts the economy can not start excellence, "said Loc.

Along with his views Loc, many industry experts predicted, more likely, the insurance industry's sales growth in 2013 of around 10%. Thus, this will be the third consecutive year, the insurance market revenue growth regressed.

2012 new longer than 1 month closed, but estimates AVI, overall market growth only slightly higher than 10%, compared with 17% plan. In particular, the volume of non-life insurance estimated growth rate of 13 - 14%, in volume-life is 11 - 12%. Growth rate of 13 - 14% of the volume of non-life insurance this year can say is that the efforts of the business block, in the context of public investment cuts, the company stopped several investment plans expand production and business. In fact, many difficulties and challenges, the non-life insurance companies have shifted our products to personal property insurance, health and medical insurance, liability insurance, credit insurance financial use, agricultural insurance, create new growth for the insurance market and less certain results recorded.

In the life insurance sector also showed less effort, when the real estate market, bleak securities, the income of the workers affected by manufacturing and trading many declining industries, service prices increases, but still attracts numerous customers insured and maintain old insurance contract.

Businesses continuously launching new products and focus on developing distribution channels to reach more potential customers source. In particular, bancassurance distribution channel are many life insurance companies special attention. Some businesses focus on exploiting its own strength as issued through the postal channel. However, due to the characteristics of the Vietnamese insurance market, the channel remains the dominant channel agent should the life insurance business remains focused on this channel. Some businesses continue to develop models of agents like AIA, Korea Life, Dai-ichi, Manulife ... Competitive strategy will continue to be developed for enterprises in 2013.

According to Loc, with the lessons of the past two years to overcome the difficulties and challenges of the global economic downturn, stable macro-economic policies, inflation will be a factor giving the DN plan insurance business in 2013 close to the actual completion of the plan.

2013 is a pivotal year implementation plan developed insurance market from 2011 to 2015 by the Ministry of Finance, at the same time, also celebrate 20 years of the Vietnamese insurance market development. This will be an important motivation for the companies in the industry to strive to set the highest achievement in the business.

Trinh Thanh Hoan, director of the National Insurance Supervisory Management (Ministry of Finance) predicted that by 2013, the total amount of the insurance companies accumulated investment return economy estimated at $ 95.000 billion.

Sir, was near the end of 2012, the growth target of 17% of the entire insurance industry this year may be difficult to achieve?

Initially expected, the insurance market in 2012 continued to maintain growth of about 17% compared with 2011. However, with the difficult economic situation, the total premium income of the market in 2012 was estimated at 40,858, up 11.7 percent from 2011; including non-life insurance premium revenue is estimated at 22,942 billion, up 11.5% and life insurance revenue was estimated at 17,916, up 12 percent from 2011.

In my opinion, the volume growth of 11.5% of non-life insurance this year as expected, but compared to other industries can say is that success in the context of the real estate market froze, investors cuts, investment firms minimize expansion. Many challenges, the non-life insurance companies have shifted our products to personal property insurance, health and medical insurance, liability insurance, credit insurance, agricultural insurance ... Life insurance sector also found success not least, while labor income decline, the price of goods and services increased, but still attracts numerous customers insured and maintained old insurance contract.

Overall, in 2012 the growth rate not reach expected, but the entire insurance industry made a great effort, expressed in that market continues to develop stable, healthy and safe; ensure financial viability ; improved quality of service; diversified insurance products to meet the needs of the insured. As a result, foreign investors still appreciate the potential of the Vietnamese insurance market.

Insurance industry plays an important role in mobilizing resources for investment back into the economy. With the difficulties mentioned above, activities this year have been affected? What is your prediction on resource mobilization plan for investment in the economy in 2013?

In the period 2003 - 2010, insurance companies have created large capital and long-term, play an important role in mobilizing investment resources of socio-economic development. In 2012, with these difficulties, the mobilization of resources for investment return economy affected but not great because now, the investment activities of insurance companies have become more diverse and afternoon depth, in order to ensure selection of the appropriate form of investment, safe and effective. On the other hand, due to the characteristics of the insurance business and technical management of insurance funds, insurance companies invest idle funds from operational reserves must comply with the maximum allowable rate.

In 2012, the total amount of accumulated investment insurers back to the economy is estimated at 90,591 billion, up 9 percent from 2011. In particular, the DN-life estimated at 66,361 billion (up 10.4% compared to the same period in 2011), the non-life business is estimated at 24,230 billion (up 5.6% compared to the same period in 2011).

Forecast, in 2013, the Vietnamese economy will be even more difficult challenge especially for companies in the financial sector, banking and real estate. This will also make it difficult for insurers to expand the customer. We predicted that in 2013, the total amount of the insurance companies accumulated investment return economy estimated at $ 95.000 billion.

Forecast next year more difficult, if the industry growth can be reduced compared to the long-term plan, sir?

As I said, in 2013, the difficulty exists, therefore, predict the Vietnamese insurance market will continue to maintain growth target of about 10 - 12% compared to 2012. In the next year, many new insurance products will be the insurance companies on the market to serve the insurance needs of diverse organizations and individuals as products of export credit insurance, agricultural insurance industry, insurance underwriting, liability insurance, health care and health insurance products, pension and insurance for the poor ...

Despite difficult than the other "g and downs" of the economy, the insurance industry remains a bright spot. What were you most satisfied in the development of the industry in the past year?

Macroeconomic situation in 2012 a negative impact on mining activities covered. However, besides that, the insurance market also has a number of advantages such as: the new legislation takes effect created favorable conditions for the operation of the DN ... 2012 is also the first year of implementation of the strategy to develop the insurance market for the period 2011 - 2020 with the implementation of the synchronization mechanism and policy solutions, enterprise restructuring, strengthening management and supervision State insurance.

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Insurance industry forecast 2013

Best Insurance stock - Insurance industry forecast 2013 : be depressed in the near term as a result of downward pressures on investment yields. Overall, the industry remains well capitalized whereby policyholder surplus for the P&C sector stood at $567.8 billion at June 30, 2012, an increase of $17.5 billion from yearend 2011. Policyholder surplus for life and accident & health sector was $318.4 billion June 30, 2012, compared to $310.4 billion at Dec. 31, 2011. In spite of this, both the P&C and life sectors continue to trade below book  value. The NASDAQ Insurance Index was up 4.52 percent for the first nine months of 2012 compared to 11.28 percent for the S&P 500. To counter this lackluster stock market performance, insurance companies are expected to create shareholder value by aggressively relying on share repurchases. Several carriers have recently announced their intention of doing this, and we expect this trend to continue well into 2013.

On the investment side, the Federal Open Markets Committee has announced its intention to keep interest rates low until mid- 2015. While this is a universal challenge for all insurance companies, it’s a distinct concern for P&C carriers. Their assets must be invested in short-term to medium-term maturities, which have been in a continuous decline (the average five-year and 10-year Treasury yields were 0.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, in July 2012, compared to 1.4 percent and 2.75 percent in July 2011.) On top of this, in recent years, underwriting operations have also been less profitable.

Fitch Ratings expects combined ratios for 2012 and 2013 to be 101.1 percent and 100.3 percent, respectively. And while this is a marked improvement over 2011, we expect the P&C industry to see continued challenges. In the 1990s, insurance companies saw returns in excess of 7 percent through fixed income securities; today these yields have declined to roughly 5.5 percent. Therefore, we’ve seen a number of insurers exit or re-price unprofitable business lines and revisit their investment allocation and risk tolerance strategies to maintain or enhance the investment yields. In particular, a number of life and annuity

carriers have made these moves: Hartford, Sun Life and Manulife announced plans to exit the life and annuity business, and AXA and Aegon have offered lump-sum payments to their variable annuity contract holders with rich living benefit guarantees to remove the associated risks from their balance sheets. We expect this trend to continue.

To bolster investment yields, insurance companies are changing their asset allocation strategy, shifting to distressed asset classes, longer duration bonds, commercial mortgage loans and equities. But this means some companies, according to AM Best, are “deploying cash and short-term investments into lower-quality, high-risk investments” which could negatively impact their capital adequacy ratios and, therefore, their ratings. Yet, one positive impact of the continued lowinterest rate environment for some insurers, at least in the short-term, has been significant unrealized gains on older bond portfolios. But although this has a positive impact on surplus, it has not had much impact from an earnings perspective. Some insurers have opportunistically realized some of these gains, but it comes at the expense of earning lower yields in the future, as well as dealing with asset liability mismatch issues going forward. Download full articel

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